Rural Development News--Dimensions of the Rural Population

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Rural Development News--Vol. 23 No.3, 1999

From the Director

Dimensions of the Rural Population

by Willis Goudy

Willis Goudy As residents of the nation complete their 2000 census questionnaires, others prepare for the distribution of information that will occur in 2001, 2002, and following years. Land-grant personnel in states throughout the region have played important roles in disseminating data after previous censuses and no doubt will do so again.

The number of residents living in rural areas of the North Central states has not varied as much from 1940 to 1990 as may be commonly thought. At the beginning of that period, about 16.7 million rural residents lived in the 12 states served by the NCRCRD; 50 years later, the count was about 16.9 million. The rural population peaked in 1980 at 17.3 million. While the decline may have continued in the 1990s, there are some suggestions that the rural population may have held rather steady or perhaps increased at least in some states. Percentage change could be minor in several states once 2000 census data are available.

The relatively small change of about 200,000 Midwestern rural residents from 1940 to 1990, however, masks three trends within the total (Table 1, Figure 1). Three subdivisions of the rural population—farm, town, and country residents—have fared quite differently during recent decades.

One trend is obvious to observers of the rural North Central region; the farm population has declined dramatically during the 50 years from 1940 to 1990. In 1940, 9.3 million people were living on farms; the number was 1.9 million in 1990, when the farm population was defined to include persons living on an acreage producing sales of at least $1,000 in agricultural products.

The drop in the farm population was at least 1 million between each of the five decennial censuses between 1940 and 1980; the 1980-1990 change was slightly below that figure. The greatest decline occurred in the 1960s (-2 million).

In 1940 more than half (55.4 percent) of the rural population in the Midwest consisted of those living on farms. By 1990, those living on farms were slightly more than one-tenth (11.3 percent) of all those residing in rural areas. The farm population in 2000 likely will be the smallest yet, although the drop may not be as great in numerical terms when compared with previous decades, but only because the decline has been so large previously.

The second trend involves small towns and it is contrary to many images held about what has occurred in this portion of the rural population. About 4.1 million people lived in rural towns in the Midwest in 1940, which the U.S. Bureau of the Census defines as any incorporated place with fewer than 2,500 residents. Fifty years later, nearly the same number was noted for such towns.

Only in the 1980s did the population of small towns change by more than 100,000 across the 12 states; a decline of 135,000 occurred in that decade. The 1970s had the greatest increase (+83,000) in small-town population.

The 1970s included years usually referred to as the “rural turnaround,” when higher numbers of rural residents were observed in many counties throughout the United States. That turnaround was much more modest in many Midwestern states than those located in other regions and did not continue through the 1980s. Still, the fact that about the same number of residents lived in small Midwestern towns in 1990 as in 1940 suggests general stability in the total numbers of such residents. Many changes were occurring within those towns, of course. In 1940, one-quarter (25.0 percent) of rural residents lived in small towns; this declined by less than a percentage point as of 1990 (24.4 percent).

One trend hasn’t been recognized to the extent that it deserves. It involves the remainder of the rural population—those not living on farms or in small towns. This segment—called country residents here—
accounted for less than one in five (19.6 percent) of all rural residents in 1940, but more than three in five (64.3 percent) in 1990 in the Midwest. This category has grown rapidly from 3.3 million in 1940 to 10.9 million 50 years later.

In 1960, country residents outnumbered those living on farms for the first time when information was summed across the 12 states. This occurred earlier in some states, of course. In Michigan and Ohio, country numbers were greater than those for the farm population before 1950. The 1950 or 1960 censuses revealed that Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Wisconsin had fewer living on farms than in the country.

It wasn’t until 1980 or 1990 that this took place in Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. All other states in the nation had gone through this transition by 1970. Iowa, Nebraska, and North Dakota were the final three states to have more country than farm residents; that occurred in 1990.

Country residents include several types, such as those occupying housing units that formerly were the homes of farm residents, those living in housing developments outside of incorporated places, and those building homes on acreages that have aesthetic amenities frequently associated with rural life, such as overlooking a river valley or in part of a forested area. Whatever label they are given, these residents constitute a group that differs substantially from the farm and small-town categories. And it is likely that the 2000 census will reveal another increase in this portion of the rural population.

Changes in the numbers in the three groups of rural residents suggest a rural Midwest that differed substantially in 1990 from what it had been in 1940, when the farm population was the largest of the three groups. Now it is the smallest and the decline in the farm population is well known. The trends in the other two divisions of the rural population are less recognized. All three trends need to be taken into account when programs on rural development are designed. Those constructed in previous decades are not likely to fit the increasing diversity of rural populations observed today.



As residents of the nation complete their 2000 census questionnaires, others prepare for the distribution of information that will occur in 2001, 2002, and following years. Land-grant personnel in states throughout the region have played important roles in disseminating data after previous censuses and no doubt will do so again. The number of residents living in rural areas of the North Central states has not varied as much from 1940 to 1990 as may be commonly thought. At the beginning of that period, about 16.7 million rural residents lived in the 12 states served by the NCRCRD; 50 years later, the count was about 16.9 million. The rural population peaked in 1980 at 17.3 million. While the decline may have continued in the 1990s, there are some suggestions that the rural population may have held rather steady or perhaps increased at least in some states. Percentage change could be minor in several states once 2000 census data are available. The relatively small change of about 200,000 Midwestern rural residents from 1940 to 1990, however, masks three trends within the total (Table 1, Figure 1). Three subdivisions of the rural population—farm, town, and country residents—have fared quite differently during recent decades. One trend is obvious to observers of the rural North Central region; the farm population has declined dramatically during the 50 years from 1940 to 1990. In 1940, 9.3 million people were living on farms; the number was 1.9 million in 1990, when the farm population was defined to include persons living on an acreage producing sales of at least $1,000 in agricultural products. The drop in the farm population was at least 1 million between each of the five decennial censuses between 1940 and 1980; the 1980-1990 change was slightly below that figure. The greatest decline occurred in the 1960s (-2 million). In 1940 more than half (55.4 percent) of the rural population in the Midwest consisted of those living on farms. By 1990, those living on farms were slightly more than one-tenth (11.3 percent) of all those residing in rural areas. The farm population in 2000 likely will be the smallest yet, although the drop may not be as great in numerical terms when compared with previous decades, but only because the decline has been so large previously. The second trend involves small towns and it is contrary to many images held about what has occurred in this portion of the rural population. About 4.1 million people lived in rural towns in the Midwest in 1940, which the U.S. Bureau of the Census defines as any incorporated place with fewer than 2,500 residents. Fifty years later, nearly the same number was noted for such towns. Only in the 1980s did the population of small towns change by more than 100,000 across the 12 states; a decline of 135,000 occurred in that decade. The 1970s had the greatest increase (+83,000) in small-town population. The 1970s included years usually referred to as the “rural turnaround,” when higher numbers of rural residents were observed in many counties throughout the United States. That turnaround was much more modest in many Midwestern states than those located in other regions and did not continue through the 1980s. Still, the fact that about the same number of residents lived in small Midwestern towns in 1990 as in 1940 suggests general stability in the total numbers of such residents. Many changes were occurring within those towns, of course. In 1940, one-quarter (25.0 percent) of rural residents lived in small towns; this declined by less than a percentage point as of 1990 (24.4 percent). One trend hasn’t been recognized to the extent that it deserves. It involves the remainder of the rural population—those not living on farms or in small towns. This segment—called country residents here— accounted for less than one in five (19.6 percent) of all rural residents in 1940, but more than three in five (64.3 percent) in 1990 in the Midwest. This category has grown rapidly from 3.3 million in 1940 to 10.9 million 50 years later. In 1960, country residents outnumbered those living on farms for the first time when information was summed across the 12 states. This occurred earlier in some states, of course. In Michigan and Ohio, country numbers were greater than those for the farm population before 1950. The 1950 or 1960 censuses revealed that Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Wisconsin had fewer living on farms than in the country. It wasn’t until 1980 or 1990 that this took place in Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. All other states in the nation had gone through this transition by 1970. Iowa, Nebraska, and North Dakota were the final three states to have more country than farm residents; that occurred in 1990. Country residents include several types, such as those occupying housing units that formerly were the homes of farm residents, those living in housing developments outside of incorporated places, and those building homes on acreages that have aesthetic amenities frequently associated with rural life, such as overlooking a river valley or in part of a forested area. Whatever label they are given, these residents constitute a group that differs substantially from the farm and small-town categories. And it is likely that the 2000 census will reveal another increase in this portion of the rural population. Changes in the numbers in the three groups of rural residents suggest a rural Midwest that differed substantially in 1990 from what it had been in 1940, when the farm population was the largest of the three groups. Now it is the smallest and the decline in the farm population is well known. The trends in the other two divisions of the rural population are less recognized. All three trends need to be taken into account when programs on rural development are designed. Those constructed in previous decades are not likely to fit the increasing diversity of rural populations observed today.